U.S. big and bulky last-mile delivery market holds at $10.63 billion as demand softens in 2025

The market for big and bulky last-mile delivery in the United States is valued at $10.63 billion in 2025, according to industry reporting, as carriers and retailers recalibrate operations in response to softer demand. The segment, which covers doorstep and threshold handling of large items such as furniture, appliances, and fitness equipment, has been one of the fastest-growing corners of the parcel industry in recent years but is now entering a more measured phase.

Demand shifts reshape the segment

Operators are scaling back on aggressive capacity buildouts and trimming route density in lower-volume regions, even as they keep coverage intact across major metropolitan markets. Industry observers say consumers are still buying large items, but order frequency has cooled compared with the pandemic-era surge that lifted the category to record volumes.

Where carriers are placing their bets

Analysts tracking the space point to several areas where investment is still flowing:

• Specialised two-person crews for heavy and fragile goods
• White-glove and threshold-only service tiers with tiered pricing
• Returns logistics for oversized e-commerce items
• Regional consolidation centres to reduce per-stop cost

As carriers tighten networks, broader logistics spending is also being redirected. New infrastructure announcements, such as the Eurasian Development Bank backing the Mercury logistics hub expansion in Kazakhstan and Encore Fulfillment expanding capacity with a new central U.S. distribution hub, suggest capital continues to move toward strategic warehousing and cross-border corridors even as last-mile volumes soften.

Corporate disclosures are also drawing attention, with groups such as Keller Logistics Group issuing a corporate correction notice underscoring how closely investors are watching logistics filings this year.

Outlook for the rest of 2025

With the $10.63 billion base set, the near-term outlook for big and bulky last-mile delivery hinges on holiday-season volumes and the pace of any interest-rate-driven rebound in big-ticket retail. Operators that have invested in service differentiation rather than pure speed appear best positioned to weather the cooldown.